The Changing Course of 2013 on the East End

Change is coming.

Jan. 1, 2013, East End of Long Island

It’s a new year on the calendar but in many ways we all remain the same person we were just yesterday, or in this case last year. I ran to buy a bottle of Champagne at the local spirits shop and while waiting on line I overheard the elderly gentleman in front of me tell the owner, “Well I am not going to die by falling off any fiscal cliff,” then he laughed and said, “ I am 89 years old, and I am not changing my short-term goals, just my long-term goals.” They both laughed, I then instantly came up with the idea for this blog: The Change Coming in 2013.

OK, forget the fact that your accountant will need an accountant to figure out your taxes due to the “unknown” ramifications of the new tax laws no one still understands is a wild card. And the new “Affordable Health Care Bill” needs to prove that it’s not unaffordable to the nation. Not to mention, is the economy going to “double dip” or recover?

Yet I believe this coming year will be the year of rebuilding. The whole of Long Island has been blasted with five huge storms in the last 18 months and everyone has been affected. Roofs, basements, trees, garages, fences, windows, gutters, and so forth are now being re-evaluated on the "2013 To Do” list of all homeowners and business owners.

The question is as always, “How will I get the money to do what need to be done?" This is something everyone is saying from the president of the United States and Congress right down to the unemployed scrambling to pay rent. But here’s what I say: All this misfortune of the last 18 months is going to create a new dynamic this spring, a renewal of energy that will somehow make things become better. Perhaps some federal aid will pay for beach cleanups, and rebuilding of parking lots, concession stands and restrooms. I am predicting right here right now in about five weeks, the East End summer rentals are going to get active and stay active because places like Fire Island won’t be ready for 2013. I have seen Fire Island, and there is no way its capacity will be anywhere near 2012's. This is a very sad fact.

Now as someone not born in Southampton Hospital,thus a transplant, I look at the residents of the East End as hard working, creative, enterprising and very skillful at maximizing the extraction of the discretionary funds of the summer season visitor. So much so the summer visitor sees a real value in it.

So I predict the following for 2013 on the East End:

1- Lots of small contracting work on homes

2- Lots of rental activity

3- Restaurants creeping back to the better numbers of 5 years ago.

4- More traffic,

5- More day visitors to the beaches (due to damage to up-Island beaches)

6- A turn around in the spirits of the struggling small business owners and more prosperity for the large already successful businesses.

Now I wish all Patch readers a Happy 2013 New Year!

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

Stinker January 02, 2013 at 10:45 AM
Sorry to put a damper on your predictions but your taxes are going up, small businesses taxes are going up, the price of gas for the traffic is going up, small business as large business are both struggling and will continue to do so, the economic uncertainty will continue to keep people from spending and the contractors will continue to go out of business and leave the area due to financial ruin. Your government voted to raise taxes and spending and called it saving us from a cliff. They then went on vacation. Feel the burn.
Rick Hoyt January 02, 2013 at 12:03 PM
Sorry TJ, Can't Put a Happy Face On It, Yes We Live in the Bubble Called The Hamptons, which will only delay the inevitable. But We're in FUBAR Territory,Sneaky politicians passing Sh*$ in the Middle of the night on a Holiday, Past the Deadline, Then Feckless Ones in Congress Caves Everytime, Of Course when Obama Signs it The Media Will Cheer, I Now think Joe Sixpack and Soccer Mom are seeing this Travesty Finally, congratulations you voted for and now are a part of the Matrix.
Shinnecock Hills January 02, 2013 at 12:42 PM
Happy New Year to you too. I'm afraid I'm not as thrilled as you about the prospect of more day trippers and rentals. When I see the big Fresh Direct trucks making their deliveries it's a clear sign that, at least some of these people, are not helping the local economy and buying from local farm stands and other businesses. But they do add to the congestion and auto accidents. I've seen plenty of change here over the past 40 + years.
Preliator January 02, 2013 at 02:17 PM
I suppose that if we all drank the kool-aide we would have a brighter outlook for 2013...we would be in denial, but we could lie continue to lie to ourselves.
Jaguar-Guy January 02, 2013 at 03:44 PM
What do you all mean ?? The fiscall cliff disaster was averted and President Obama has saved us from our current financial nightmare !! Yeah Obama !! Yes, the cool-aid is great.
Concerned January 02, 2013 at 04:37 PM
Jaguar you forget the debt ceiling that is three weeks away. Can Obama cut spending? Can he lead liberal democrats to cut spending?
Concerned January 02, 2013 at 04:42 PM
Jaguar, the wealthy have begun to restructure their lives. Many high earners are moving their permanent residences to no income tax states like florida for at least 186 days a year to offset the federal tax increase. All high income and real estate taxed states will be losing tax revenues as folks move and offset the federal taxes and avoid the snow!
T.J. Clemente January 02, 2013 at 04:58 PM
Hey everybody, a few comments, first of all Happy New Year to all especially Goldfinger who, like all of you I thank for reading Patch.com. No one loves an overcrowded parking lot or beach, hell I lived on Ditch Plains Beach, full time, for over 3 years and when summer came,yikes, but with the Jersey Shore, Fire Island, Breezy .Point, the Rockaways, Long Beach and other locals utterly destroyed,... well heads up. Southampton residents pay a huge price to be residents of Southampton but they do get a lot back. It is one of the most beautiful places on earth.That's why when those fellows landed from Lynn, Mass in 1640, they didn't say, "Hey lets move on this place is ugly!" No they stayed, and struggled, to make a life of it in what they called "Paradise". Count your blessings but yes be aware and manage the costs.
Concerned January 02, 2013 at 05:18 PM
Oh the other 185 days will be on the east end of long island to be sure! NY will not lose the real estate taxes on homes out east!
Jaguar-Guy January 02, 2013 at 06:50 PM
I think they will lose big on taxes. No longer just snow-birds doing it.
Jaguar-Guy January 02, 2013 at 06:51 PM
No. He made concessions and Boehner did too - in anticipation of the debt ceiling. DC for you.
Concerned January 02, 2013 at 09:10 PM
Jag Guy I hope you right.
Roger Herman January 03, 2013 at 12:37 AM
No matter how o spins the debt the facts are that there are eighty two million getting stuff from the govt and one hundred eight working. baby boomers and many low income people will quit and take advantage of programs that encourage not working. it is simply unsustainable and our country will be downgraded again by the rating services,. those who voted for o and hastened the demise of the greatest country ever will be in for a rude awakening when the end comes with a dictatorship started by a guy like obama who speaks well and makes people feel better when it is just for his ruling party and own enrichment and power. if you really belive obama saved you from a fiscal disaster you are dilusional. the republicans stopped a major tax increase on all and managed to let more people keep more of their money than the class warfare communist wanted. if the are smart and the threat against everyone is gone, no new debt ceiling or spending raises especially until reid presents a passabe budget.
highhatsize January 03, 2013 at 04:51 AM
Absent the House Republicans forcing a default on the public debt in March, Long Island will have a prosperous year. Other sections of the country are already in full recovery, the housing market is improving, and the stock market is rising, all signs that point to good times ahead for Long Island (and particularly the East End.) The caterwauling right-wing Cassandras will soon shut their gobs, waiting for a future Republican administration to create the NEXT economic catastrophe, at which point they will shake the moth balls from their hackneyed extremist catchphrases and claim, AGAIN, that the Democrats and Liberals are at fault, despite Republican paw prints covering every surface.
Roger Herman January 03, 2013 at 12:21 PM
You dont get it. Bush was a big spender and o has doubled the debt in his terma. it doesnt matter who is at fault. there is no way to pay for the handouts. the leeway for this has long passed. Boating and rentals were off last year and there is no reason to think things are getting better. unemployment is still high and all the taxes that kick in will drive the fragile economy into a new normal of bad times. that is simply what o promised. i dont know of any section eights renting oceanfront cottages. nor will the majority of the country do well as they hunker down. Yes, East Hampton may rent out but the rest of the country is still letting people go.
highhatsize January 04, 2013 at 04:55 AM
to Roger Herman: Actually, as of Oct. 5, President Obama had increased the debt by 52%, a far cry from doubling; and the unemployment rate is declining, despite your contrary assertion. Nonetheless, you are right in noting that if we do not halt the debt increase we face ultimate catastrophe (and even allowing it to stand will enervate the country) but it isn't as imminent as you predict. This year on the East End (the topic of the article) should be OK.
Roger Herman January 04, 2013 at 06:36 PM
You are on track for twenty trillion plus. obama hasnt passed a budget yet and his spending has been one trillion three hundred billion. in eight years bush spent four trillion in eight years o will have spent over ten trillion. these are the facts and if you like how the country is going you get what you voted for. i told you the new normal was just dispair. the unemployment figure was revised back up to 7.9. you keep up thinking all is well. obviously, living in a dilusion is the way to go. tune out.
Roger Herman January 04, 2013 at 06:46 PM
O over spent 1.3 trillion a year so far. When clinton left office the debt was six trillion. when bush left it was ten. now over sixteen and o wants more stimulous. This spending has to stop. on top of it you know that interest rates have to rise as they are artificially low and will rise after our credit rating is lowered again. we wont be able to pay five pct if we are having trouble paying near zero and are raising taxes on everyone.
Preliator January 04, 2013 at 08:35 PM
We have already hit our debt limit, Gehtnier is just shuffling things around at the moment to keep things solvent but the real crime its that we hit this limit early. Barack Obama is spending money we don't have at an unprecedented rate. The CBO just released info that we now are borrowing .46 cents of every dollar we spend. This is unsustainable and no amount of tax increases will address this issue. We need to cut spending, we need tax reform, we need entitlement reform and we need to end foreign aide.
highhatsize January 04, 2013 at 09:14 PM
You are preaching to the choir. Everyone agrees that our current spending/revenue structure is unsustainable. (You are, however, misinformed about the unemployment rate. It is 7.8%, unchanged from November.) However, as regards the East End in the short term, 2013, the outlook is positive.
T.J. Clemente January 05, 2013 at 12:27 AM
The positive outlook is for a better summer season for businesses that feed off of an enhanced visitation during the summer season. If you are retired, or not working, having a larger influx of visitors will not make you happy......that point is understood
Shinnecock Hills January 05, 2013 at 12:58 AM
But some of these visitors don't patronize local businesses as I mentioned above - Fresh Direct for produce to name one
T.J. Clemente January 05, 2013 at 01:05 AM
if there is an increase of 30% of visitors to the east end this summer Fresh Direct will get a few new sales
John January 05, 2013 at 01:56 PM
"No matter how o spins the debt the facts are that there are eighty two million getting stuff from the govt and one hundred eight working." I guess in your mind the people who work for a Federal, State, municipal government, or even the military don't work because they are not part of the one hundred and eight million private sector jobs you mention.
Jaguar-Guy January 05, 2013 at 05:08 PM
Unemployment remained at 7.8% despite 155,000 jobs being added. Not true Hat.
highhatsize January 05, 2013 at 05:32 PM
to Jaguar-Guy: The unemployment rate has declined from 10% in October, 2009 to 7.8% in November, 2012. As you note, 155,000 jobs were added in November. George the Worst annihilated five million jobs; President Obama has restored over two million, and counting.* *http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/unemployment-rate-78-and-unemployed-duration-drops-december-2012


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