For the last seven years I was paid money to evaluate local races.
I learned quickly which "brands" (a new phrase for elective candidates) were strong and run winning races no matter how the economy of the area weathered. Names like Thiele, Throne-Holst, Nuzzi, Schneiderman and LaValle seemed to be locks on re-elections. So when popular Southampton Town Councilwoman Bridget Fleming decided to take on Ken LaValle, many heads turned and said, why?
Ms. Fleming has shown the ability to raise money and connect with voters, due to the efforts of a revitalized Southampton Democratic Party lead by Gordon Herr, Grania Brolin but perhaps rebuilt by the local political genius of Michael Anthony. Phone banks, registration drives, and local appearances have served Ms. Fleming well in what so many considered an uphill battle from the start.
But Bridget Fleming seems to enjoy the good fight for the right reasons. An Obama operative from 2008, the University of Virginia Law School graduate seems to embrace a spirit of tackling impossible tasks and defeating Ken LaValle. However, defeating LaValle just may be that, impossible.
With almost twice as much money in hand, and a seasoned local well oiled ground game in place for more than 30 years, Mr. LaValle has quiet strength. No bells or whistles just a proven track record of getting large numbers of voters to the poles on election day.
He has delivered many dollars and programs to the East End. The Community Preservation Fund, a program both Fred Thiele and Ken LaValle help establish up in Albany has raised over $700 million since it was signed into law in 1999 to purchase open lands in Suffolk County. Mr. LaValle has always been active watching out for the East End. Yet Bridget Fleming wants to replace LaValle because she believes she is poised to represent a new generation of East Enders in Albany. I believe this election cycle across the nation with be a game changer for the next 10 years. The fierce tenor of the pitch of political battle is almost harmful to sensitive political ears, but the prize is the future of our, towns, counties, states, and the nation.
John F. Kennedy once said, “Politics is the only game for adults.” This election cycle the adults are really going at it.
However, LaValle will win nonetheless because he hasn't done a bad job. The best "issue" that Ms. Fleming could raise was our high electricity rates. While Senator LaValle may bear his share of the collective guilt of all local politicians for the last fifty years in enabling that disaster, his individual responsibility is slight.
I think that it will be closer than most do because LaValle is an unexciting candidate and the effort to conceptualize him as "old" will probably be successful enough to prevent some people from voting for anyone.
Bishop is a harder call. Probably around 4%.
Now, when this extortionate contract was due to expire next May, Ken Lavalle used his influence to get LIPA to extend the one-sided thing for another 15 years, until 2028! Why? Well, his home school district gets 40% of its revenue from an artificially high tax assessment on the Port Jeff power plant. Also, National Grid and its PACs have contributed tens of thousands of dollars to Ken LaValle and other Senate Republicans over the years. You say LaValle "hasn't done a bad job." It might surprise some folks who think Ken LaValle's a moderate to learn that he's anti-choice. Pro-Life Long Island gave him a 100% rating because he voted their way 8 out of 8 times on reproductive issues. In a recent six-month period, Ken LaValle spent more than $510,000 on "office expenses," more than anyone else in either house of the Legislature. Where did he spend over half a million in half a year? A lot of it went for glossy, full-color campaign-style mailers masquerading as constituent updates, political propaganda at taxpayer expense. Doesn't seem like a good job to me.
Speaking of getting things done, that's where Ken LaValle recently failed us, despite his 36-year seniority and his chairmanship of the Higher Education Committee. This baron of the Republican majority, who spends at the rate of a million dollars a year on his own office expenses, couldn't get $200,000 for a grant for seven East End school districts to study consolidation, improvements and economizing. Where's all that "clout" we keep hearing about, Ken? It's time for a State Senator who's energetic, informed, and ready to give her all for Long Island families -- that's Bridget Fleming. Anyway, thanks for the soapbox, but no predictions.
So partisan you lie. Geesh.
You cant have it both ways,